NVDA strategy validation

Validated on 5-minute candles

Validated Oct 28, 2026 — may not reflect a later revision

Max drawdown

▼ −40.6%

largest fall from a peak, net of costs

Average per trade

▼ −11.2 bp

net of costs

Profit factor

0.47 → 0.97

in-sample → out-of-sample

Win rate

16% → 25%

in-sample → out-of-sample

Trades

330

247 in-sample · 83 out-of-sample

Previous day levels with retracement to the gap The strategy operates long and short on 5‑minute candles within the 09:40–15:30 ET window, Monday through Friday. Training period It generated numerous trades but showed consistent losses. The profit factor was very low, indicating that losses far outweighed gains. Capital drawdown was significant, with a substantial maximum retracement. The win rate was very low, reflecting that most trades were losing. Out‑of‑sample period Performance improved markedly compared to training: the profit factor approached neutrality, total losses were minimal, and the maximum retracement dropped dramatically. The win rate increased, although it remained low. However, the strategy continued to generate net losses, albeit very small in magnitude. Verdict Although out‑of‑sample behaviour was substantially better, the strategy remains losing in both periods. It does not meet the required profitability criteria. Verdict: rejected, was not profitable in training or out‑of‑sample. Exits: take profit at a price level, stop‑loss at a price level, short side: take profit at a price level and stop‑loss at a price level; automatic close at the end of the session if still open; maximum one trade per day. Net results include a 0.10% cost per trade. Past results do not guarantee future results.