PCVX strategy validation
Validated on 1-minute candles
Validated Oct 31, 2026 — may not reflect a later revision
- Max drawdown
- −8.2%
- largest fall from a peak, net of costs
- Average per trade
- +54.1 bp
- net of costs
- Profit factor
- 1.97 → 1.86
- in-sample → out-of-sample
- Win rate
- 57% → 38%
- in-sample → out-of-sample
- Trades
- 43
- 30 in-sample · 13 out-of-sample
PCVX 1m Gap-Up Long ORB trades long on PCVX during the regular US session. It looks for bullish breakouts of the 15-minute opening range when there is a positive gap, with VWAP confirmation, elevated RSI and strong volume, with entry between 09:45 and 16:00 ET. In the training period, the strategy generated trades with a win rate above 50% and a solid profit factor, showing consistency in its approach. The out-of-sample period showed a lower win rate and a smaller drawdown, reflecting variability in market conditions. Despite this reduction in profitability, the profit factor remained robust and the strategy continued to generate net gains, indicating that the underlying concept remains valid even when conditions become less favorable. Verdict: the strategy held up out of sample. Exits: take profit at a price level, stop-loss at a price level; automatic close at the end of the session if still open; at most one trade per day. Results are net of a cost of 0.10% per trade. Past results do not guarantee future results.
Results by period
| Metric | In-sampleJan 2025 – Sep 2025 | Out-of-sampleSep 2025 – Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 30 | 13 |
| Win rate | 57% | 38% |
| Profit factor | 1.97 | 1.86 |
| Avg. win | 1.92% | 3.09% |
| Avg. loss | -1.27% | -1.04% |
| Best trade | 6.94% | 4.70% |
| Worst trade | -2.75% | -1.96% |
| Longs | 30 (57%) | 13 (38%) |
| Shorts | 0 | 0 |
| Total return | 16.10% | 7.15% |
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Strategy tested
Intraday strategy, long only, at most one trade per day, Monday to Friday. Times in ET, regular session only. Opening range: the high and low of the candles from 09:30 to 09:44 (first 15 minutes). Width = high - low. Daily conditions: • today's open is at least 0.3% above the previous session's close; • the opening range has a minimum width of approximately 0.1% (high x 0.9995 >= low x 1.0005). Entry: from 09:45 until the end of the day, buy at the close of the first candle that meets all of the following at once: • it closes above the opening range high; • it closes above the session VWAP; • RSI(14) is greater than 55, calculated only with today's candles; • its volume is greater than 1.3 times the average volume per candle of the opening range (candles from 09:30 to 09:44). Stop: entry price minus 1 times the opening range width. Target: entry price plus 3 times the width. If neither is hit, it closes at the end of the day. Uses the symbol PCVX on the 1-minute timeframe over the time range 2025-01-01/2025-12-31
What we assumed
- Opening range = 09:30-09:45 time window (candles from 09:30 to 09:44), using the highest high, the lowest low and the average volume.
- Gap: today's open (first open of 09:30-09:45) >= previous session's close x 1.003.
- Minimum range width: high x 0.9995 >= low x 1.0005, as specified.
- Entry window: from 09:45 to 16:00 ET (until the end of the day), Monday to Friday. The start time coincides with the end of the opening range.
- Stop = entry close minus the range width (level mode). Target = 3 times the risk (risk multiple 3), which equals entry + 3 x width because the risk is 1 width.
- Close at the end of the session if neither stop nor target is hit: applied automatically by the engine, with no timeout.
- One trade per day: the engine already takes at most the first signal of the day.
- RSI(14) calculated only with today's candles: RSI calculated only with today's candles is used. VWAP: the session's vwap indicator.
- Requested test range: 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31.
- Tested over the requested range: 2025-01-01 to 2025-09-13 (training) and 2025-09-14 to 2025-12-31 (out of sample).
More analyzed strategies
See allPast performance is not indicative of future results. Any past result shown here reflects historical data and does not guarantee similar outcomes going forward.
This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Backtested and simulated results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading. Simulated performance has inherent limitations and may differ significantly from live results due to market conditions, slippage, and other factors.