AAPL strategy validation

Validated on 5-minute candles

Validated Oct 27, 2026 — may not reflect a later revision

Max drawdown

▼ −5.1%

largest fall from a peak, net of costs

Average per trade

▼ −4.3 bp

net of costs

Profit factor

0.76 → 0.95

in-sample → out-of-sample

Win rate

41% → 45%

in-sample → out-of-sample

Trades

105

85 in-sample · 20 out-of-sample

Backtest analysis: Opening range with pullback to gap, confirmation candle The strategy trades long and short depending on the side of the gap formed after breaking the levels of the first session candle (09:30-09:35 ET). It seeks entries through engulfing patterns when the price pulls back to the gap within the next 12 candles. During the training period, the strategy produced consistent losses. The profit factor was low, indicating that losses significantly outweighed gains. The maximum pullback was considerable. In the out‑of‑sample period, the win rate increased. However, the strategy continued to lose money, though with a smaller maximum pullback. The relative improvement suggests some consistency in behavior between the two periods, but insufficient to reverse net losses. Limitations: operates on a single symbol, maximum one trade per day. Verdict: rejected, not profitable in training or out‑of‑sample. Exits: take profit 0.6%, stop‑loss 0.3%, short side: take profit 0.6% and stop‑loss 0.3%; automatic close at session end if still open; maximum one trade per day. Net results with a 0.10% transaction cost per trade. Past results do not guarantee future performance.